Consensus going into the meeting
Consensus is for a status-quo decision, but the tone of the policy statement matters more than the headline.
We're watching for three things: liquidity guidance, the inflation trajectory call, and any hint on the OMO calendar.
Positioning into the print
Positioning suggests the curve will steepen on a dovish surprise and flatten on a hawkish one.
Short-duration funds and ladders dampen the impact of either outcome — useful if you don't have a strong rate view.